China's SME development index rose for the second consecutive month, which was released today (10th) by China Small and Medium Enterprises Association. In November, China's SME development index was 89.2, up 0.2 point from October and rising for two consecutive months. China Small and Medium Enterprises Association believes that the main driving force for the continuous rise of the index is that a series of stock support policies continue to exert their strength. At the same time, since September, a package of incremental policies has begun to take effect, and various positive factors have accumulated, which has led to the improvement of the prosperity level of small and medium-sized enterprises. Ma Bin, executive vice president of China Small and Medium Enterprises Association, said that in November, the comprehensive operation index and benefit index of small and medium-sized enterprises rose by 0.5 points respectively, both the biggest increases this year. At the same time, the long-term high cost index has dropped significantly, which is very rare. It shows that the improvement of the prosperity level of small and medium-sized enterprises is based on a virtuous circle, and this wave of "two consecutive rises" has a high gold content.Chen Long was selected into the World Badminton Hall of Fame, and Guoyu won many awards of the year. On December 9, Beijing time, the welcome dinner of the 2024 World Badminton Year-end Finals and the award ceremony of the best athlete of the year were held in Hangzhou. The ceremony announced the results of the best selection of the year. Guoyu gained a lot and won many awards of the year: the best male athlete of the year: Shi Yuqi; Best mixed doubles combination of the year: Huang Dongping/Feng Yanzhe; Best men's doubles combination of the year: Liang Weikeng/Wang Chang; Best women's doubles combination of the year: Liu Shengshu/Tan Ning; Best Disabled Male Athlete of the Year: Qu Zimo WH1;; Best Disabled Female Athlete of the Year: Liu Yutong WH2 and Li Fengmei SH6.Huaxi Securities: In 2025, the rate of RRR cut and interest rate cut may not be lower than 50bp and 20bp. Huaxi Securities Research Report pointed out that this Politburo meeting revisited "moderately loose monetary policy", and the market inevitably associated with the magnificent combination of monetary and fiscal policies in 2008-2010. Specific to this round of monetary policy, it may be similar to it, not only the tone has changed, but also the framework has changed from the previous cross-cycle (or both cross-cycle and counter-cycle) to counter-cycle adjustment, which is likely to point to an increase in the adjustment range of reserve ratio and policy interest rate. Looking forward to 2025, the rate of single RRR cut and interest rate cut of monetary policy may not be lower than 50bp and 20bp (the rate in 2024), and the possibility of further increasing the rate in the face of extreme circumstances is not ruled out. The specific degree and duration of easing may depend on the economic situation.
CITIC Securities: In November, the PPI turned positive more than expected, and the core CPI continued to improve. According to the research report of CITIC Securities, the price data in November 2024 showed that the boosting effect on the economy after the policy shift in late September initially appeared at the "price end", mainly in two aspects: "PPI turned positive" and "continuous improvement of core CPI". In terms of PPI, this month's PPI turned positive more than expected, and the main contributions came from "the effect of trade-in for new products is gradually appearing at the price end of related industries" and "the acceleration of physical workload of infrastructure has boosted the prices of raw materials industries in the upper and middle reaches". It is embodied in the remarkable improvement of PPI in computer machine manufacturing, communication terminal equipment manufacturing, automobile manufacturing, durable consumer goods (means of subsistence), non-metallic mineral products industry and other industries. In terms of CPI, although the year-on-year growth rate of CPI further declined to 0.2%, which was significantly lower than the market expectation, it was largely affected by the over-seasonal decline in food prices. The core CPI, which the market paid more attention to, continued to improve slightly on the margin, with the year-on-year reading rising from 0.1% at the bottom of September to 0.2% in October and 0.3% in November. In terms of splitting, the CPI decline of the three major durable consumer goods and services has narrowed compared with the same period of last year. On the whole, the combination of "CPI 0.2%+PPI -2.5%" reveals that China is still facing significant "low inflation" pressure, and it is still necessary to continue to strengthen the price level with a package of incremental policies. Looking back, if the boosting effect of the "two new" policies on the demand of downstream industrial products and the driving effect of the accelerated issuance of special bonds on the physical workload of infrastructure can be released continuously, it will provide some support for the improvement of PPI; However, if you want to see the PPI continue to turn positive significantly, you may have to wait for the policy to further push the physical workload and real estate start-up data, as well as the more stringent supply-side optimization policies in some areas with more production capacity.In early trading, the main domestic futures contracts rose almost across the board, with coke and glass rising by over 5%, BR rubber and coking coal rising by over 4%, screw thread and soda ash rising by over 3%, iron ore rising by nearly 3%, and hot coil, polyvinyl chloride (PVC), para-xylene (PX), PTA, Shanghai Bank, Shanghai Tin, rapeseed meal and SC crude oil rising by over 2%. In terms of decline, asphalt and low sulfur fuel oil (LU) declined slightly.Poly Real Estate's 7 billion yuan public bond project was updated to "accepted". On December 10th, according to the information disclosure of Shanghai Stock Exchange, Poly Real Estate Group Co., Ltd. plans to publicly issue corporate bonds with a total amount of 7 billion yuan to professional investors in 2024. At present, the project status has been updated to "accepted". Huatai United Securities is the underwriter of this bond issue, and the bond type is public offering. The Shanghai Stock Exchange has updated the project on December 9, 2024.
President united steelworkers union: The acquisition of Nippon Steel in Japan may mean the long-term decline of American steel companies. The head of the largest trade union in North America said that there is no guarantee from Nippon Steel to ensure that American steel companies will not decline after the acquisition. A few days ago, Nippon Steel of Japan proposed a $15 billion acquisition of American steel companies, which was opposed by Biden and Trump. The acquisition will be subject to the national security review of the Committee on Foreign Investment (CFIUS) later this month. United steelworkers union Chairman David McCall was interviewed on Monday. On that day, Nippon Steel announced the details of various commitments it had made to gain union support, including job security and investment in facilities. Mccall said that one of his biggest concerns is that Nippon Steel may export steel products to the United States through its international steel mills, which he feared would weaken the position of American steel companies. Mccall said: "When we discuss with Nippon Steel, nothing can guarantee that their commitment is feasible in the long run." Nippon Steel previously denied that it would import steel from its international steel mills after reaching an agreement, and repeatedly said that its goal is to become a "member" of the United States, and the American market is crucial to its future growth.The yield of China's 10-year treasury bonds dropped to 1.87% at the beginning of the session, and the betting easing policy was accelerated. The yield of 10-year treasury bonds "24 Treasury bonds with interest 11" dropped by 3.5bp to 1.87%, hitting a record low.According to Reuters news, an Israeli military spokesman today (December 10th) denied that the Israeli army had reached the place 25km away from Damascus, and said that the Israeli army had not left the buffer zone. Earlier, the media reported that the Israeli army had arrived about 25 kilometers southwest of Damascus, the Syrian capital. Reuters quoted Syrian security sources as saying that Israeli troops had arrived in Qatena in Rif Dimashq. (CCTV International News)
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Strategy guide 12-13